Iraq appears to play “key” in the global oil market, say IEA
The Iraq could overtake Russia as the second largest exporter of oil in the world, in 2035, if can use your potential to double production in this period, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday.
The IEA, which periodically assesses the energy market for its 28 Member States, states that the Arab country has resources to double production by 2020, reaching 6 million bpd. If keep the rhythm, can get to produce 8 million barrels per day in 2035.
This would place the country as world’s second largest exporter, after Saudi Arabia, and would turn Iraq into “key” element to global markets, as it would ensure the provision and would present a stability against the risk of oil shortage and high prices, indicated the Agency to submit the report in London.
In this document, the AIE- founded after the 1973 crisis to ensure energy security to its members, the developed countries- estimates that, under optimal conditions, Iraq will represent 45% of the increase in world production for 2035 ahead of the group of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC).
In the coming decades, the Iraq, which is currently the third exporter in the world, will become the leading supplier in Asia, especially China, where, within 25 years, could send about 2 million daily oil barrels.
According to the chief economist of the IEA, Fatih Birol, it is of global interest that the Arab country can reach this oil production potential, since, otherwise, with the high prices and reduction exploitable areas, “the will markets turbulent phase “in the coming years.
It’s necessary that Iraq gradually increase the pace of investment in infrastructure, water supply and education, which is now US$9 billion. Ideally, in the next 25 years, investments of US$ 530 billion.
Another challenge that the Baghdad government faces – pointed Birol- is to improve the national electricity supply, still very poor, which would allow concentrate on developing the oil industry.
No melhor dos casos, aponta o economista, o país poderia chegar até 2035 com rendas anuais de US$ 200 bilhões provenientes do petróleo, o que compensaria amplamente o investimento necessário.
Birol assinalou que, com essa receita, o Iraque poderia diversificar sua economia, que atualmente depende da venda de petróleo em uma proporção de 72% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB).
A AIE, que contou com a colaboração das autoridades iraquianas em seu relatório, assinalou que o país tem também muito por fazer no campo do gás natural, embora essa fonte de energia deveria ser utilizada num primeiro momento internamente para melhorar a provisão energética, e depois ser exportada.